Wash. PD's New Violent Crime Plan Sees Success Early On

Since Tacoma implemented a crime plan in July, violent crime in Tacoma has decreased 20 percent compared to last year, according to the plan's authors.

Mike Smith, the criminal justice chair at the University of Texas at San Antonio, and Tacoma Police Chief Avery Moore presented an update of the first 90 days of the Tacoma Police Department Violent Crime Reduction Plan at the City Council's study session Tuesday.

Criminologists at the University of Texas at San Antonio developed a three-phase plan to decrease violent crime in Tacoma. The city is in its first phase, hot-spot policing, which was implemented July 6. Hot-spot policing focuses on a 1,000-foot radius of 16 violence-prone locations, which are adjusted every 90 days if needed based on changing crime patterns. Officers have high visibility by illuminating their patrol car lights for 15 minutes every hour at certain times to deter criminal activity.

Smith said hot spots saw a 30.3% decrease in the monthly average of violent crime during the 90-day treatment, compared to the previous 12-month average. Catchment locations, the area around hot spots, saw a 42% decrease in the monthly average of violent crime during the 90-day treatment, compared to the previous 12-month average, according to Smith. City-wide, violent crime decreased 19.8% compared to the previous 12-month average, he added.

Murders/non-negligent manslaughter, robberies and aggravated assaults are considered violent crimes.

Rob Tillyer, an UTSA associate professor of criminal justice, previously said displacement, which is when crime moves elsewhere, generally does not happen with hot-spot policing.

Smith said the decrease in crimes at catchment locations shows it's not being displaced, and there is a significant diffusion of benefits, in which crime around the treatment location also goes down.

"It's great that we're going to reduce violent crime at the addresses," Smith said. "I wouldn't be very disappointed if we didn't do that, but a larger goal is to reduce crime in areas beyond just those street addresses, so to see catchment area crime go down so significantly, that's the kind of impact that we're really looking for."

UTSA researchers compared the average monthly violent crime incidents from three months prior to the hot-spot policing implementation and to the year prior.

At the hot-spot locations from July 6 to Oct. 5, average monthly violent crime incidents were 10.3, a decrease from 16.3 average monthly violent crime incidents from April 6 to July 5. During 2021, the average monthly violent crime incidents were 11.7 at hot-spot locations for the July 6 to Oct. 5 time frame.

"That's an initial piece of good news that the crime plan and the deployment strategy seemed to have an initial effect at the treatment areas as we anticipated that and hoped that it would," Smith said.

Smith also presented that murders were up — by one — and individual robberies were up, but business robberies and aggravated assaults were down in the treatment areas, compared to 2021.

Smith said a police officer was present at the hot-spot location within the peak hour 92% of the time. Moore said the goal is 100%.

Tacoma Police Department is in its second period of hot-spot policing, which will last another 90 days. Officers will continue hot-spot policing at half of the initial locations, the other half has cooled enough to be dropped as a hot spot. Smith recommended hot-spot policing to be on a 60-day rotation in the future.

Smith said during the plan's presentation in July that violent crime tends to be concentrated at commercial establishments in Tacoma. The hot-spot locations will not be shared due to safety reasons, according to a city news release.

The mid-term phase of the violent crime reduction plan is problem-oriented, place-based policing. Smith said preparation is dependent on police and city resources but can begin implementation after the second period of hot-spot policing.

Mayor Victoria Woodards said it is great to see a decrease in violent crime, but there is still a lot of people in the city who don't feel safe.

"As excited as I am about this and how great we're doing, I want to acknowledge the fact that there are people out there watching going, 'That's great but I still hear gunshots in my neighborhood, I still see crime in my neighborhood, my business is still being broken into,'" Woodards said.

Moore said perception of crime is the hardest thing to fight and is something the department is working on. He said the numbers presented show the truth of Tacoma's crime.

"This is not the wild, wild west," he said. " Tacoma is a safe city. Do we have crime in areas? Absolutely. As (Smith) said, it's unrealistic to say we're going to get rid of all crime. My goal in the very beginning was to be the safest city in the country, and I sit with that."

Woodards said she also wants Tacoma to be the safest city in the United States.

Several council members requested information about the hot spots, such as racial demographics, education and if they are on the city's equity index.

Blocker said violent crimes tend to be acts of desperation impacted by poverty. He questioned what else is going on in these areas and how the city can use that information to address distress and disparities at those locations.

Smith said the crime plan is 100% data-driven and is agnostic to race, gender and any other factor, except for crime.

Moore said the police department deploys based on criminal behavior and not based on demographics.

The next update on the crime plan will be early next year.

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